by David G. Hawkins
Long Term – Monthly Bars Chart
The first chart here is the monthly bars chart. In my last review of this timeframe chart, two months ago, I said, “So, on this timeframe, the volatility of the market is contained in this very wide trading range between S2 Cal. and R2. Nothing more can be said in this timeframe until price eventually breaks out of this range.” Now we see that price has broken out above both R2 and R1. This bodes well for continued upward movement, going on to challenge the 2011 high. Looking at this chart more broadly, from the 2009 low we see that in 2011 we established both a higher high and a higher low, confirming that since March of 2009, price has been, and continues to be, in a long term uptrend. If price goes on to break above the 2011 high, this will continue the uptrend.
Short Term – Daily Bars Chart
The second chart here is the daily bars chart, updated through yesterday. There is a TopFinder (purple curve) running from the December 19th low, and it is essentially done now. So, this accelerated sort term uptrend is over now, and we should expect at least some consolidation before price decides what new direction to go in.