Bryan Leighton's Blog – December 2009 Archive (25)

Healthy Markets Have Corrections. (NYSE: FNM, FRE, C, WFC, GS)

Since the March low when the SPX traded at 666 the market has had a rally beyond comparison. The SPX is currently trading at 1125 and this is a 460 point move in ten short months. It is important to realize since this bull run began that the market has not experienced a single 10 percent correction. This is not healthy action. This is a market on steroids and as we all know using artificial hormones are not healthy and can sometimes cause or lead to death. Therefore, it is still amazing that… Continue

Added by Bryan Leighton on December 30, 2009 at 11:27am — No Comments

Government Predictions

Today's markets are slightly higher as the volume is as light as a feather. However, today the leading names are trading lower. Apple Computer (Nasdaq:AAPL), Google (Nasdaq:GOOG), and Potash (NYSE:POT) are all negative today even as the market is positive. All of these leading stocks have had tremendous moves in 2009. These could all be leading candidates for a correction in the New Year.



2009 has had a bull run to remember by all measures. There isn't anyone who could deny that.… Continue

Added by Bryan Leighton on December 29, 2009 at 11:08am — No Comments

It’s all about the Benjamin’s

The U.S. Dollar has opened lower on the day. This has given the major stocks indexes a slightly higher gap up this morning. While many believe the dollar trade has decoupled from the market we do not. Remember a lower dollar gives commodities and inflationary stocks a lift. This entire rally from the March lows has been on a weaker dollar with the exception of the past three weeks. Please realize that the last three weeks have seen some of the lightest trading volumes in the month of… Continue

Added by Bryan Leighton on December 29, 2009 at 9:56am — No Comments

Metal Stocks Poised For 10% Or More Correction In Early 2010 After Massive Runup

It has been a move for the history books. Stocks like United States Steel (NYSE: X), Alcoa Inc (NYSE: AA), Titanium Metals Corp (NYSE: TIE) and Century Aluminum Company (NasdaqGS: CENX) soaring into the end of 2009 like a rocket ship headed for the stars. Just in the last month or two, these metal stocks have ripped higher by 25 - 50%. It now looks like they are coming into massive resistance levels and I am issuing a red alert sell signal.



Based on valuations, growth projections and… Continue

Added by Bryan Leighton on December 28, 2009 at 12:05pm — No Comments

SPEND TO THE END

The markets have floated since the Santa Claus rally began early last week. The volume has been extremely light and this does give the market a slight upside bias. Remember the old saying, never short a dull market. Well, this market has been very dull if you go by the current volume. Many stocks have screamed to new highs for the year such as Apple Computer(Nasdaq:AAPL), U.S. Steel(NYSE:X), and Simon Property Group(NYSE:SPG). This is the Santa Claus rally that everyone looks forward to every… Continue

Added by Bryan Leighton on December 28, 2009 at 11:11am — No Comments

Pure Lack Of Respect As Gov't Lifts Cap On Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) and Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM)

Once again I find myself furious at the disrespect the treasury and government give the average American. The Obama administration, thinking the average U.S citizen may be too dumb to find out, slipped a new tidbit of news under the nose of the markets. What news you ask? The treasury lifted the bailout cap on FREDDIE MAC (NYSE: FRE) and FANNIE MAE (NYSE: FNM), the two mortgage behemoths. This was done obviously to keep them from failing as it appears the depth of the losses continues to… Continue

Added by Bryan Leighton on December 27, 2009 at 9:28pm — No Comments

Happy Holidays, Whats Next?

Three days before Christmas and the volume is light

Exxon Mobile(NYSE:XOM), the Spyders(NYSEArca:SPY), and Apple(NasdaqGS:AAPL) are doing all right.



While gold(NYSEArca: GLD), and oil(NYSEArca: USO) have caught a small bid

however, for them to move higher the dollar must have had an intra-day skid.



Goldman Sachs(NYSE: GS) is trading down less than a buck

with $20 billion in bonuses do they really need luck.



Other banks are basically flat on the… Continue

Added by Bryan Leighton on December 22, 2009 at 3:23pm — No Comments

Holiday Party May Be Starting As Alcoa Inc (NYSE: AA), Amazon.com, Inc. (NasdaqGS: AMZN) Jump

The markets are moving higher today on the back of solid moves from Alcoa Inc (NYSE: AA), Amazon.com, Inc. (NasdaqGS: AMZN), Intel Corporation (NasdaqGS: INTC) and JP Morgan Chase Co (NYSE: JPM). Volume has started to trail off and is expected to starting around 10:30am ET each day this week. This is due to traders leaving early for the holidays and the lack of news after the morning session on Wall Street. This week we will see quite a bit of economic news, but it is all pushed into the pre… Continue

Added by Bryan Leighton on December 21, 2009 at 2:40pm — No Comments

Market Update: Options X Friday Caps Off Wild Week With Great Swing/ Day Trading Moves

After a harsh continuation sell off on Wall Street early in the day, the markets have slowly headed back higher into the 50ma. The dollar has done the opposite of the market by spiking higher early, then heading back down. There is a nice bullish in spirit of flag pattern currently in formation on the SPY intra day chart. It has been a wild and crazy week in the markets. Perfect for options expiration quad witching. Many thing the holidays were going to be slow but it has been the exact… Continue

Added by Bryan Leighton on December 18, 2009 at 2:37pm — No Comments

TRADE LESSON: Beware Of The Higher Open

Many traders and investors have been buzzing about the Research in Motion(RIMM) earnings. Every financial website was making a big fuss about how they knocked the ball off the cover and may trade higher to the moon. As a trader we simply view all of that as noise and want to tune out the news that you hear. It is more important to just find the support/resistance levels on the charts.



This morning we alerted our traders that RIMM should pullback from the open. After scanning the… Continue

Added by Bryan Leighton on December 18, 2009 at 10:30am — No Comments

Dollar Down, Oh It's Fed Day.

Recently the markets have rallied on the day of the FOMC announcement. The market knows the Federal Reserve Bank is not going to say anything to spoil the apple cart. They have been more than accommodative by keeping the Fed funds rate (overnight rate from the FRB to the large major banks) at virtually zero percent. Some would argue that these efforts have saved the financial system. This comes even as banks are still not lending. Well who is really qualified to get a loan anyway with… Continue

Added by Bryan Leighton on December 16, 2009 at 11:07am — No Comments

Yields On The Rise

Is the bond market talking to us? The yield on the 10 year Treasury note is now at 3.61%. The 10 year Treasury note is by far the most important bond. Most of the mortgages are based off the 10 year note. The housing market is one area in the economy that is still facing major headwinds. Foreclosures and delinquent mortgages continue to rise. This fact remains even with the U.S. government offering an $8,000 tax credit for first time home buyers and the $6500 tax credit to anyone that buys a… Continue

Added by Bryan Leighton on December 15, 2009 at 1:41pm — No Comments

TRADE LESSON: STACKING THE ODDS IN YOUR FAVOR

One of the best things a trader could have is multiple factors on the charts to increase the odds of a successful trade. Often many beginner or novice traders buy or sell a stock just based off one support/resistance level. While that is a start, the IntheMoneyStocks.com traders are taught to look for two or more factors to increase the odds of a winning trade.



For example, today we can look at an intraday chart of Wells Fargo (WFC). First, note the sharp decline on WFC into the 10… Continue

Added by Bryan Leighton on December 15, 2009 at 10:53am — 1 Comment

TRADE LESSON: ALL TOPS ARE NOT CREATED EQUAL

One of the best and most simple patterns to find is the double top. While most intraday double tops will be a good resistance level and a possible intraday scalp area they are not all created equal. As traders all we look to do is put the odds in our favor. Therefore, technically we want to take advantage and read the best support/resistance levels possible.



When trading the double top pattern intraday we want to spot a top that occur several days ago. In fact the longer back the… Continue

Added by Bryan Leighton on December 14, 2009 at 11:27am — No Comments

Geithner Defends Using TARP While Citigroup 20 Billion Offering May Signal Top Like BX In 2007

I cannot help but watch this market like I am watching a cheesy horror movie which is both disgusting, funny and scary all rolled up into a perfect 90 minutes. The problem is, this 90 minute horror flick seems like it is lasting an eternity and it just gets worse and worse as it continues. Today we got jobless claims. The number of people filing claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 17,000 to a seasonally adjusted 474,000 in the week ending Dec. 5. This was basically in line with… Continue

Added by Bryan Leighton on December 10, 2009 at 12:19pm — No Comments

CITIGROUP Expected To Pay Back Tarp. Watch These Levels

Citigroup(NYSE:C) is expected to pay back the TARP money soon. They have been rumored to raise capital by issuing a huge secondary offering. This is similar to what Bank of America(NYSE:BAC) just completed. Citigroup is expected to raise $20 billion dollars in this offering. One can only wonder what the rush is to pay the TARP back lately. On Monday twelve major banks, including Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C), Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS) and JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM), and others had a… Continue

Added by Bryan Leighton on December 10, 2009 at 10:45am — No Comments

Trade Lesson: Downward Channels Will Eventually Breakout To The Upside...Great Example Shown Today

Since yesterday morning, a channel had been forming on the SPY 10 minute chart. It was a nice downward channel that continued to bounce off the lower channel trendline and then hit the upper. These patterns break to the upside about 90% of the time and can be used as a great trading method for making money. The key is to understand that once the break is made, the technicals signal a move and traders pile on the trade. This send it spiking higher like the below example. Learn the channel… Continue

Added by Bryan Leighton on December 9, 2009 at 12:08pm — No Comments

All Eyes Watch With Anticipation As The Markets Begin To Set The Table For The Year End

One of the most volatile days came to an end on Friday. The markets initially reacting to the amazing jobs report of just 11,000 jobs lost in November. Then, selling hard as the dollar began to squeeze. So where is this market headed? First, let's take a look at the jobs number. In reality it must be recognized that manufacturing still took a terrible loss on jobs while services gained. So why is this a problem? Well considering retailers were hiring for Black Friday a week plus ago and they… Continue

Added by Bryan Leighton on December 7, 2009 at 11:54am — No Comments

TRADE LESSON: EXTENDED MOVES CAN LEAD TO GOOD TRADES

It is very important to watch for stocks on all time frames that get extended from the 20 moving average. Today NVDA was gapped higher on the day and very extended from it's 10 minute and 60 minute 20 moving averages. This tells us that the stock must pullback or stall at these levels. The next step is to find the strong resistance level. This can be accomplished by moving to the higher and usually more dominant time frame. Therefore, in this case we scan the daily chart and see a double top… Continue

Added by Bryan Leighton on December 7, 2009 at 10:56am — No Comments

HUGE REVERSAL TODAY SO FAR. IS THE "FRIDAY EFFECT" HOLDING IT STEADY?

The stock market has staged a huge reversal day after some of the most bullish news that one could receive. The government jobs report was almost positive and the revisions were all much better. Then the factory order report was much better than expected. Many that are not traders would think the market would be moving to the moon and we have a huge reversal underway. It's is almost comical when the market is falling as it did at 2:30 pm ET to get positive comments from Fed Bank officials. This… Continue

Added by Bryan Leighton on December 4, 2009 at 3:20pm — No Comments

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