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Stockfiend
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Thanks for your perspectives. The S & P is a market that I only reference in terms of long term developments and trends and I do not try to time it or predict short term moves.
With currencies, I use a system derived from the trading patterns of large institutions that control most of the trading in the interbank forex system. It is not technical except in the derivative sense that institutions may integrate technical analysis in their trading. It is not fundamental in that news does not determine trades for the system.
I think the US is emerging from the financial crisis into a low interest rate, high productivity low inflation environment that will make the Fed's job easy in terms of an exit plan for its Q E program. In two words, "No Problema" I am thinking. Good chatting, Keith
I am a proponent of the big picture economic analysis and apply it to forex markets.
Here is that analysis:
For as far as the eye can see we will have a low interest rate environment for most of the global financial centers.
That means mortgage rates will remain below historical norms, housing will rebound, savings from housing value appreciation will increase.
Central Banks will establish rates below historical averages because inflation will remain contained.
Productivity will return to above historical averages.
Unemployment is by its nature a lagging indicator and will slowly return to below historical norms as well.
The USD is not going to be replaced as the world's reserve currency by the BRIC world.
In sum, the USD will be rising in a low interest rate environment, something many analysts today do not believe.
That is a market for buyers of USD.
My trade was buy USDJPY from 88.00 on October 9.
Hope to chat here,
Keith Long